AGP Executive Report

Red Sea Trade Disrupted: Yemen’s Houthis kept pressure on Bab al-Mandeb after claiming attacks on Saudi Aramco-linked sites in Jizan and Yanbu, and Kpler data showed Sunday crossings fell to the lowest level in months, with only 11 commodity vessels passing (seven oil tankers). Shipping Costs & Insurance Hit: Yemeni officials say Saudi actions and inspections have crippled Hodeidah Port and raised war-risk insurance costs sharply, while insurers reportedly exclude “Saudi touchpoints,” adding friction to regional oil exports. Oil Market Volatility: Oil prices slid after a US-Iran pause in strikes eased immediate supply fears, but analysts warn the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained and the Red Sea risk is still active—keeping markets on edge. Diplomacy vs. Escalation: Mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan say progress is being made to restart US-Iran talks, even as Saudi Arabia reports drone interceptions from Iraq and Houthis vow further retaliation. Yemen Security Response: Yemen’s armed forces said they’re at high readiness to protect Red Sea navigation and coordinate with the coalition to deter Houthi threats.

Red Sea Trade Shock: Yemen’s PM Shaya Zindani condemned Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping as “Iran’s agenda,” urging tougher international action to protect maritime corridors. Shipping Disruption: Kpler data shows Bab el-Mandeb traffic plunged after Houthis hit Saudi oil installations; only 11 commodity vessels crossed on Sunday, with seven tankers, while Strait of Hormuz transit stayed severely restricted. Oil Market Volatility: Oil slid after the US and Iran paused strikes for a second day, with Brent down about 5% to near $92 and WTI near $85, but the pause hasn’t normalized routes yet. Diplomacy vs Escalation: US UN envoy Mike Waltz said Trump is giving talks “some space” while keeping “all options on the table,” as analysts warn the conflict’s costs keep rising. Yemen’s Economic Toll: Yemen’s transport minister said Red Sea Ports Corporation losses exceed $12bn due to Saudi blockade, including years of port damage and container delays. Regional Pressure: Singapore MFA condemned attacks on Saudi energy and vessels, calling for restraint and respect for navigation rights.

Red Sea Shipping Risk: An unidentified projectile landed near a commercial tanker in the southern Red Sea; UKMTO said the crew and vessel were unharmed, but authorities urged heightened caution as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis keep disrupting Bab al-Mandab transit. Saudi-Houthi Energy Pressure: The Houthis’ threats and attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and Aramco facilities have pushed crude prices above $100 and are reshaping maritime insurance and logistics costs. US-Iran Pause, Yemen Front Still Hot: The US paused airstrikes on Iran for a second straight day and Tehran said it halted retaliatory attacks too, but the lull hasn’t stopped the wider conflict from spilling into the Red Sea and beyond. Local Yemen Health Fallout: In Mukalla, health workers are racing to contain a dengue outbreak by tracking mosquito breeding sites, highlighting how conflict-linked strain is worsening public health. Security Claims in Yemen: The Houthis also claimed they shot down a Saudi-operated reconnaissance drone over Al-Jawf, underscoring the growing air-defense risk for regional operations.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu after Saudi airstrikes hit Hodeidah, escalating pressure on Red Sea shipping and raising fresh fears of renewed disruption to oil flows. US-Iran Pause With Yemen in the Middle: The US paused airstrikes on Iran after 13 nights, while its naval blockade stayed in effect and diplomacy reportedly advanced—yet the conflict still widened through Houthi-Saudi exchanges, keeping Yemen’s war risk elevated. Maritime Enforcement: The US said it redirected 12 commercial ships attempting to breach its Iran blockade and disabled/boarded non-compliant vessels, underscoring how trade routes are being tightened across the region. Local Yemen Response: In Hajjah, Yemen’s communications authorities launched a school bag distribution project for 2,500 students from the poorest families, while Yemen’s economy ministry began a third “Al-Aqsa Flood” training course for staff amid ongoing escalation.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis escalated again, firing missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan after strikes on Hodeidah, while Saudi air defenses (with a Greek-operated Patriot system) intercepted two ballistic missiles and later a drone; the exchange is raising fresh fears of wider disruption to Red Sea and Hormuz-linked oil flows. Maritime Risk & UN Alarm: UN chief António Guterres said he is “deeply alarmed” by renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, warning Yemen could be pulled deeper into regional conflict with serious economic, humanitarian, and environmental fallout. Airport Siege Claims: Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam accused Saudi Arabia of keeping Sanaa International Airport closed and compared Riyadh’s stance to Israel’s “aggression,” linking the airport issue to a broader siege narrative. Global Trade Fallout: Analysts warn stalled shipping could worsen biofouling and trigger invasive species spread if vessels remain idle for long periods. Security Spillover: Somali pirates hijacked a Tanzanian-flagged fuel and chemical tanker (MT Asana) in the Gulf of Aden, with the ship reportedly held in Puntland. Fuel & Markets Watch: Oil prices hovered around the $100 mark as investors priced in higher risk, while gold rose on safe-haven demand.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Yemen’s Houthis say they will retaliate after Saudi strikes hit Hodeidah, accusing Riyadh of targeting civilian infrastructure and warning of “escalation for escalation,” while the Saudi-led coalition insists it hit Houthi military sites linked to threats against commercial vessels and says Yemeni ports remain open. Maritime Blockade Reality Check: Despite the blockade threat, two Saudi crude tankers reportedly passed Bab al-Mandeb, but risk remains as Houthis broaden what counts as “Saudi-related” shipping. US-Iran Escalation Spillover: The US fired on a merchant vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports, as US and Iran traded strikes for a 13th night; diplomacy looks stalled. Oil & Costs: With Red Sea and Hormuz risks back in focus, oil volatility is driving renewed inflation fears and higher transport and fuel costs across the region. Yemen Governance: Yemen’s internationally recognized government appointed its first female foreign minister, Afrah Al Zouba, in a cabinet reshuffle.

Red Sea Energy Shock (Yemen): Yemen’s Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb, raising fears of wider disruption as the US keeps striking Iran and Trump warns of “major military punishment” for further ship attacks. UN & Diplomacy: UN chief Guterres urged de-escalation and warned renewed Houthi attacks could deepen Yemen’s regional conflict, while Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal routed via Iraq, saying it lacked guarantees. Oil & Markets: Brent briefly surged above $100 before easing, with gold and silver moving on oil pullbacks and rate expectations; global stocks also wobbled as investors weighed Middle East risk and tariffs. Regional Shipping Risk: Reports say some tankers are rerouting or sailing with transponders off amid blockade threats, while insurance and logistics costs rise. Pakistan Angle: Pakistan vowed swift retaliation against attacks on its-flag vessels and explored renewed US-Iran talks with China’s push.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, escalating fears of a new shipping chokepoint as Brent surged back above $100 a barrel and supply risks spread. US-Iran Escalation: The US said it is on its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Trump warned of “major military punishment” for Iran and Houthi allies—pushing markets further into risk-off. Shipping Costs Jump: War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea cargoes reportedly doubled for some operators, with some rates rising toward 3% of ship value. Currency Pressure for Oil Importers: The Indian rupee faced fresh strain as crude jumped, with traders warning it could test record lows. Yemen Political/Readiness Signals: In Sanaa, officials and religious figures held meetings stressing readiness to “break the siege,” while Yemen’s foreign officials reiterated a siege-for-siege stance and warned companies against using Saudi ports. Market Spillover: Higher oil and renewed Middle East tensions fed into global bond-yield and inflation worries, weighing on equities and gold.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they hit two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) in the Red Sea, after declaring a Bab al-Mandeb blockade—sparking fresh fears of a second chokepoint crisis as the US continues its 12th straight night of strikes on Iran. US-Iran Escalation: Trump warned “major military punishment” if attacks continue, saying Washington will hold Iran responsible because the Houthis act as Tehran’s proxy. Shipping Costs: Maritime insurance rates are climbing as disruptions spread from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb, with vessels rerouting and some turning back. Oil Prices Jump: Brent broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, with WTI crossing $90, as traders priced in supply risks and higher fuel costs. Regional Pushback: Oman urged de-escalation and protection of freedom of navigation; the EU called the tanker attack “unacceptable and illegal.” Saudi Export Flexing: Aramco reportedly offered extra crude cargoes from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir to keep Red Sea-linked exports moving despite Houthi threats. Yemen-Iran Link: Reuters reports Iran flew IRGC commanders and missile/drone-related equipment into Yemen on July 13 to bolster Houthi capabilities.

Red Sea Oil Risk Escalates: Yemen’s Houthis say they targeted two Saudi oil tankers, “ENCELIA” and “LAYLA,” with missiles and drones after declaring a maritime embargo; UKMTO reported a tanker fire after an unknown projectile near Al Shuqaiq (about 70 nautical miles southwest), with no casualties or environmental impact confirmed. Shipping Disruption Watch: Analysts and tracking firms say more vessels are changing course or turning back around Bab el-Mandeb as the “blockade-for-blockade” posture spreads, raising the odds of higher freight costs and delayed deliveries. Energy Prices Jump: Oil pushed to six-week highs as US-Iran tensions and the Red Sea threat compound supply worries, feeding inflation fears across markets. Market Spillover (India): Indian equities are expected to open lower as crude above $95 lifts inflation concerns and hurts risk appetite, with foreign selling cited. Global Markets & Gold: Gold slipped from recent highs as traders weighed higher oil and rising Treasury yields ahead of the Fed, while Asian stocks rose on tech spending signals. Diplomacy Under Pressure: The US continues its 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, while Trump reiterates threats to hit Iranian infrastructure tied to shipping attacks, and Iran warns of “eye for an eye” retaliation.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Yemen’s Houthis escalated threats by declaring a naval blockade affecting Bab al-Mandeb, prompting multiple Saudi-linked tankers to turn back or reroute toward the Suez—raising fresh fears of a “dual-chokepoint” squeeze on global oil flows. Oil Prices: Brent surged above $95 a barrel for the first time in nearly six weeks as US-Iran fighting intensified and Red Sea risks grew, with markets bracing for higher fuel costs and inflation pressure. US-Iran Escalation: President Trump renewed threats to destroy “one bridge or power plant” for each Iranian Hormuz attack while the US carried out an 11th straight night of strikes; Iran also hit regional targets including Jordan. Regional Diplomacy & Pressure: Turkey, OIC, and the Arab Parliament condemned Houthi threats to Saudi maritime security, while Pakistan warned it would treat attacks on Pakistani-flagged vessels as threats to national security. Yemen Economy Angle: The Houthis’ blockade threat is now directly reshaping Yemen-linked trade routes and energy logistics, with shipping diversions already visible.

Red Sea Shipping Disrupted: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis warned Saudi-linked vessels not to load or discharge at Saudi ports, triggering U-turns by at least two Saudi crude tankers bound for China and India toward the Suez Canal, while analysts warn the move could raise shipping costs and tighten global supply. Hormuz Escalation: The US carried out its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran as a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being hit by an unknown projectile and crews abandoned ship; the conflict is again derailing diplomacy and keeping energy risk elevated. Oil and Gold Jump: Brent pushed above $90 and oil prices stayed firm on supply fears, while gold held gains near multi-week highs as traders weigh Middle East risks and the Fed’s rate outlook. Yemen Local Economy: In Raymah, authorities inaugurated an 8-km road project in Al-Jabin district funded through community contributions and the Central Interventions Unit, aiming to improve connectivity for thousands of residents. Environment Watch: Yemen faces accelerating illegal logging driven by fuel demand, threatening forests, water resources, and agricultural stability.

Houthi Maritime Blockade: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis issued an advisory telling shipping firms not to load or discharge cargo at Saudi ports, warning vessels could be targeted “in any location” within Yemeni operational reach, as they declare a naval blockade that raises the risk of wider Red Sea disruption. Energy & Trade Shock: The Bab el-Mandeb threat adds pressure to already strained Gulf routes, with oil prices hovering near $90 and traders watching whether Saudi crude exports and global shipping insurance costs will worsen. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila said they are “deeply concerned” about Middle East blockades and hostilities, urging dialogue as the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Yemen-Saudi tensions ripple into energy supplies. Markets Watch: Wall Street and Asian equities leaned higher on chip recovery and hopes for U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, even as investors weigh renewed escalation and its inflation impact. Yemen Politics & Economy: Yemen’s internationally recognized government says it is moving to resume oil exports and strengthen readiness, while coalition forces say they are taking operational steps to protect vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb.

Red Sea Trade Shock: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade/maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, warning they will “blockade with a blockade,” raising fears of renewed disruption at Bab el-Mandeb and pushing up shipping insurance and oil risk premiums. Oil & FX Spillover: Markets reacted with Brent holding near $88–$90/bbl and the dollar near a one-week high as traders weighed mediation hopes for a 10-day ceasefire against the threat of wider Red Sea and Hormuz supply strain. Diplomacy vs Escalation: The U.S. kept up pressure with its 10th straight night of strikes on Iran, while Iran signaled mediator proposals for a short truce—leaving energy traders stuck in volatility. Yemen Energy Update: Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council said oil exports will resume after nearly four years, with revenues aimed at the state budget, salaries, and essential services. UN Warning: The UN urged de-escalation, warning a Red Sea blockade would hit humanitarian shipments and global commerce.

Maritime Shock to Yemen’s Trade: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis declared an immediate maritime ban on Saudi Arabia, warning of “siege for siege” retaliation after attacks blamed on Riyadh—raising fresh risks for Bab el-Mandeb, a key Red Sea gateway that carries about 9% of global maritime trade. Oil & Shipping Costs: As US-Iran strikes continue, Brent pushed above $90/bbl again, while analysts warn that if Red Sea transits don’t resume quickly, an energy crunch could follow—forcing reroutes and boosting freight costs. New Security Incidents: Suspected Somali pirates hijacked the Tanzanian-flagged chemical tanker Asana off Yemen and steered it toward Puntland waters, adding to the already high risk for vessels operating near Yemen. Water Crisis Deepens: A report says 15.4 million Yemenis lack clean water and 17.4 million lack adequate sanitation, with weak governance and conflict hitting desalination and other infrastructure. Renewables Deal: Trina Solar and Al-Raebi signed an MoU to explore a 1.5GW solar pipeline in Yemen (2026–2029), signaling continued investor interest in power projects despite instability.

Oil & Shipping Shock: Brent jumped above $90 after US-Iran escalation, with Iran saying it halted vessels trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz and Kuwait reporting damage to an oil facility—raising fears of wider disruption to energy flows. Maritime Security: A Tanzanian-flagged tanker (MT ASANA) was hijacked by suspected Somali pirates off Yemen and moved into Puntland waters, underlining how Red Sea and Gulf of Aden risks keep disrupting trade. Yemen Security & Trade Routes: Yemen’s National Resistance said it thwarted a Houthi infiltration near Zuqar Island in Bab al-Mandab, while Ansarullah warned the region is heading toward “explosion” amid Saudi air blockade and US aggression. Humanitarian Pressure: Measles cases are rising in Yemen, with hospitals short of medicine and families forced to pay for basic care. Governance & Economy: Yemen’s Standards Authority met to review implementation of its strategic plan, while the IMF backed Yemeni reforms aimed at restoring economic stability. Recruitment Alarm: Houthis reportedly intensified mobilization, including thousands of recruits with many minors, signaling potential escalation. Aviation Control: Yemen’s civil aviation authority issued a directive requiring prior clearance for airspace entry, reinforcing the internationally recognized government’s control over skies.